Papers
This section presents a collection of AHP/ANP papers. Whether you are a student, academic and/or professional in the field of decision making, you can help us expand this collection by sharing your papers on decision making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Analytic Network Process (ANP).
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Paper results for keyword: ForecastingForecasting the resurgence of the US economy in 2010: An expert judgment approach
Andrew Blair, Gershon Mandelker, Thomas Saaty, Rozann WhitakerJournal: Socio-Economic Planning SciencesThis paper describes a forecast, performed in December 2008, of the time of the recovery of the U.S. economy from the contraction that began in December 2007. As in two earlier papers, the forecast uses an expert judgment approach, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), within the framework of dec...
Read MoreEconomic forecasting with tangible and intangible criteria
Thomas SaatyJournal: Economic HorizonsThis paper provides a summary of a mathematical theory about the use of expert judgments in paired comparisons and how to derive priorities from them particularly when intangible factors are involved. An example to validate the process when applied to tangibles is given along with a simple decisi...
Read MoreExtending the measurement of tangibles to intangibles
Thomas Saaty, Mujgan Sagir OzdemirJournal: International Journal of Information Technology & Decision MakingTangibles have measurements generally on ratio scales with arbitrary units that are always interpreted by using judgments as to what particular purpose the measurements serve. How two measurements on a ratio scale are related with respect to dominance leads to forming their ratio which is a dimen...
Read MoreFundamentals of the Analytic Network Process—multiple networks with benefits, costs, opportunities and risks
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of systems science and systems engineeringThe general theory of the ANP enables one to deal with the benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks (the BOCR merits) of a decision, by introducing the notion of negative priorities for C and R along with the rating (not comparison) of the top priority alternative synthesized for each of the fou...
Read MoreForecasting foreign exchange rates: an expert judgement approach
Andrew Blair, Robert Nachtmann, Josephine Olson, Thomas SaatyStudies have indicated that forecasts by market experts can be more accurate than time series forecasts. This article describes a process for structuring an expert foreign exchange forecast using Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The specific example developed is a forecast of the yen/dol...
Read MoreA new macroeconomic forecasting and policy evaluation method using the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: Mathematical ModellingThe Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to show how forecasts can be made of the effects of monetarist, Keynesian and supply-side macroeconomic policies and to determine their impact on important variables such as unemployment, inflation and GNP growth.
Read MoreSerbia joining the European Union: an ANP model for forecasting date
Predrag Mimovic, Ana Krstic, Jovana SavicJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessFor the Republic of Serbia to acquire full membership in the European Union depends on a large number of factors, and it is very difficult to predict whether the country will attain membership and when it will happen. This paper first describes the Analytic Network Process (ANP), which is then ap...
Read More
Forecasting the resurgence of the US economy in 2010: An expert judgment approach
Andrew Blair, Gershon Mandelker, Thomas Saaty, Rozann WhitakerJournal: Socio-Economic Planning SciencesThis paper describes a forecast, performed in December 2008, of the time of the recovery of the U.S. economy from the contraction that began in December 2007. As in two earlier papers, the forecast uses an expert judgment approach, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), within the framework of dec...
Read MoreEconomic forecasting with tangible and intangible criteria
Thomas SaatyJournal: Economic HorizonsThis paper provides a summary of a mathematical theory about the use of expert judgments in paired comparisons and how to derive priorities from them particularly when intangible factors are involved. An example to validate the process when applied to tangibles is given along with a simple decisi...
Read MoreExtending the measurement of tangibles to intangibles
Thomas Saaty, Mujgan Sagir OzdemirJournal: International Journal of Information Technology & Decision MakingTangibles have measurements generally on ratio scales with arbitrary units that are always interpreted by using judgments as to what particular purpose the measurements serve. How two measurements on a ratio scale are related with respect to dominance leads to forming their ratio which is a dimen...
Read MoreFundamentals of the Analytic Network Process—multiple networks with benefits, costs, opportunities and risks
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of systems science and systems engineeringThe general theory of the ANP enables one to deal with the benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks (the BOCR merits) of a decision, by introducing the notion of negative priorities for C and R along with the rating (not comparison) of the top priority alternative synthesized for each of the fou...
Read MoreForecasting foreign exchange rates: an expert judgement approach
Andrew Blair, Robert Nachtmann, Josephine Olson, Thomas SaatyStudies have indicated that forecasts by market experts can be more accurate than time series forecasts. This article describes a process for structuring an expert foreign exchange forecast using Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The specific example developed is a forecast of the yen/dol...
Read MoreA new macroeconomic forecasting and policy evaluation method using the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: Mathematical ModellingThe Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to show how forecasts can be made of the effects of monetarist, Keynesian and supply-side macroeconomic policies and to determine their impact on important variables such as unemployment, inflation and GNP growth.
Read MoreSerbia joining the European Union: an ANP model for forecasting date
Predrag Mimovic, Ana Krstic, Jovana SavicJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessFor the Republic of Serbia to acquire full membership in the European Union depends on a large number of factors, and it is very difficult to predict whether the country will attain membership and when it will happen. This paper first describes the Analytic Network Process (ANP), which is then ap...
Read More