Papers
This section presents a collection of AHP/ANP papers. Whether you are a student, academic and/or professional in the field of decision making, you can help us expand this collection by sharing your papers on decision making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Analytic Network Process (ANP).
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Paper results for keyword: Decision makingShould the UK have Brexited the European Union?
Lirong Wei, Thomas SaatyJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessThis paper is an analysis of Brexit, and asked the question, Should the UK have Brexited the European Union? We use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to model the decision based on Benefit-Opportunities-Costs and Risks (BOCR). The AHP structure considers various factors that may be taken into...
Read MoreFive Ways to Combine Tangibles with Intangibles
Thomas SaatyJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessThis paper presents five different ways to establish weights for the criteria that govern making comparisons. Four of these can be done in the context of the AHP, but the fifth and most reliable one is obtained by using the ANP.
Read MoreWhen is a decision-making method trustworthy? Criteria for evaluating multi-criteria decision-making methods
Thomas Saaty, Daji ErguDecision makers often face complicated decision problems with intangible and conflicting criteria. Numerous multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods have been proposed to handle the measurement of the priorities of conflicting tangible/intangible criteria and in turn use them to choose the b...
Read MoreBetter world through better decision making
Thomas SaatyJournal: Symp. Anal. Hierarchy ProcessTo change this world from its primitive habit of using words and language to arrive at decisions by making tradeoffs which require the use of numbers, we need to work hard to promote this way of thinking to teach the whole world and its politicians how to measure the intangibles involved in the d...
Read MoreThe Modern Science of Multicriteria Decision Making and Its Practical Applications: The AHP/ANP Approach
Thomas SaatyJournal: Operations ResearchThis paper presents a summary of the discrete mathematical part of my work, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization to dependence and feedback, the Analytic Network Process (ANP), for measuring tangible and intangible factors, particularly as applied to decision making. The fa...
Read MoreNeural synthesis of firing decisions in the brain
Thomas SaatyJournal: Istanbul University Journal of the School of Business, The brain generally miniaturizes its perceptions into what may be regarded as a model of what happens outside. We experience the world according to the capacity of our nervous system to register the stimuli we receive. In order to understand and control the environment there needs to be proportio...
Read MoreNINA's decision: How to make better decisions and resolve conflicts-an essay for the layman
Thomas Saaty, H. J. ZofferJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessDecision making is a central activity of all people, usually done so automatically that we do not even realize that we are doing it every moment of every day of every year for all our lives. This silent and inarticulate approach worked well when humanity was fragmented and individuals and groups ...
Read MoreThe Eigenvector in lay language
Thomas SaatyJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessDecision making depends on identifying a structure of criteria and alternatives of a decision. It also depends on experience and judgments to select the best alternative. In the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for decision making the criteria and alternatives are prioritized by forming matrices ...
Read MoreFuzzy judgments and fuzzy sets
Thomas Saaty, Liem TranJournal: International Journal of Strategic Decision Sciences Using fuzzy set theory has become attractive to many people. However, the many references cited here and in other works, little thought is given to why numbers should be made fuzzy before plunging into the necessary simulations to crank out numbers without giving reason or proof that it works to ...
Read MoreAn essay on rank preservation and reversal
Thomas Saaty, Mujgan Sagir OzdemirJournal: Mathematical and Computer ModellingRank preservation and reversal, so fundamental in decision making, have been an unresolved issue in the field of economics and utility theory and came into focus when the Analytic Hierarchy Process was developed because it uses paired comparisons that inevitably make the priorities of the alterna...
Read MoreAn essay on how judgment and measurement are different in science and in decision making
Thomas SaatyJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessIn decision making the priority scales are derived objectively after subjective judgments are made, and they reflect the importance of the influences we considered. The process is the opposite of what is done in the physical sciences where the subjectivity of interpreting the final number comes a...
Read MoreWords from the AHP Creator
Thomas SaatyJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessLet me take this occasion to wish this journal and its contributors my very best. It is a joyful occasion to have our own journal for decision making with the AHP/ANP and my message to you follows.
Read MoreDecision making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: International journal of services sciencesDecisions involve many intangibles that need to be traded off. To do that, they have to be measured along side tangibles whose measurements must also be evaluated as to, how well, they serve the objectives of the decision maker. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a theory of measurement thro...
Read MoreMulti-decisions decision-making: In addition to wheeling and dealing, our national political bodies need a formal approach for prioritization
Thomas SaatyJournal: Mathematical and Computer ModellingIndividuals, corporations and governments constantly face the extremely complex problem of ordering and prioritizing their numerous decisions according to urgency and importance. They need to sequence expenditures and allocate scarce resources to optimize the returns on their investments over tim...
Read MoreThe unknown in decision making: What to do about it
Mujgan Sagir Ozdemir, Thomas SaatyJournal: European journal of operational researchThe unknown or “other” that affects our lives is what we usually very much want to know about to cope with uncertainty. We often suspect that it affects us with partial and indefinite evidence that it exists but we only have uncertain feelings about it. Even when we do not know what it is we woul...
Read MoreThe Analytic Hierarchy Process: wash criteria should not be ignored
Thomas Saaty, Luis VargasJournal: International Journal of Management and Decision Making In this short paper it is shown that care is required to perform the appropriate normalisation needed to derive the right set of priorities from paired comparisons when criteria are added or deleted in a decision problem. This is particularly true for criteria with respect to which the alternativ...
Read MoreRank from comparisons and from ratings in the Analytic Hierarchy/Network Processes
Thomas SaatyJournal: European Journal of Operational ResearchRank preservation and reversal are important subjects in multi-criteria decision-making particularly if a theory uses only one of two ways of creating priorities: rating alternatives one at a time with respect to an ideal or standard, or comparing them in pairs. It is known that our minds can do ...
Read MoreDecision making—the Analytic Hierarchy and Network Processes (AHP/ANP)
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of systems science and systems engineeringThis is the first part of an introduction to multicriteria decision making using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). The discussion involves individual and group decisions both with the independence of the criteria from the alternatives...
Read MoreAutomatic decision-making: Neural firing and response
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of Systems Science and Systems EngineeringIn contrast with conscious decision-making, there are numerous subconscious decisions that we make without thinking about them. Some are biological and are made by different parts of our body to keep it alive and functioning normally. Others are a result of repetition and training that we can the...
Read MoreWhy the magic number seven plus or minus two
Thomas Saaty, Mujgan Sagir OzdemirJournal: Mathematical and computer modellingIn 1956, Miller conjectured that there is an upper limit on our capacity to process information on simultaneously interacting elements with reliable accuracy and with validity. This limit is seven plus or minus two elements. He noted that the number 7 occurs in many aspects of life, from the seve...
Read MoreNegative priorities in the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas Saaty, Mujgan Sagir OzdemirIn decision-making, there are often criteria that are opposite in direction to other criteria as in benefits (B) versus costs (C), and in opportunities (O) versus risks (R), and sometimes need to be distinguished by using negative numbers. In making paired comparisons of alternatives with respect...
Read MoreDecision making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: Scientia IranicaIn this paper, an introduction is given to decision-making theory, the Analytic Hierarchy Process. In the AHP, a decision hierarchy is constructed with a goal, criteria and alternatives. The criteria are pairwise compared for their importance with respect to the goal to derive a scale of relative...
Read MoreRanking by eigenvector versus other methods in the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas Saaty, G HuJournal: Applied Mathematics LettersCounter-examples are given to show that in decision making, different methods of deriving priority vectors may be close for every single pairwise comparison matrix, yet they can lead to different overall rankings. When the judgments are inconsistent, their transitivity affects the final outcome...
Read MoreRatio scales are fundamental in decision making
Thomas SaatyJournal: Proceedings of the Fourth International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (ISAHP’96)Multicriteria decision making depends On the use of numbers and scales to make trade-offs. We examine in detail the types of numerical scales of measurement there are and which ones seem to work better for measurement in a hierarchic model of a complex problem. It is argued that ratio scales play...
Read MoreDecisions with the Analytic Network Process (ANP)
Thomas SaatyJournal: Proceedings of the Fourth International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (ISAHP’96)For very large model applications, AHP is known to suffer from a number of shortcomings related to time, effort and consistency at performing multiple painvise comparisons. A number of methods have been proposed to shorten the time and relate the effort to the decision precision required, or inde...
Read MoreHow to make a decision: the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: InterfacesPeople make three general types of judgments to express importance, preference, or likelihood and use them to choose the best among alternatives in the presence of environmental, social, political, and other influences. They base these judgments on knowledge in memory or from analyzing benefits, ...
Read MoreA natural way to make momentous decisions
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of scientific & industrial researchA brief introduction to making decisions by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is given. A simple illustration of how to decide on which of three people should get a heart transplant is provided. How to structure a decision problem and how to enter judgments semantically, transform them to pair...
Read MoreHow to make a decision: the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: European journal of operational researchThis paper serves as an introduction to the Analytic Hierarchy Process — A multicriteria decision making approach in which factors are arranged in a hierarchic structure. The principles and the philosophy of the theory are summarized giving general background information of the type of measuremen...
Read MoreGroup decision making and the AHP
Thomas SaatyJournal: The analytic hierarchy processThis paper focuses on the application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process in a group setting. In particular, we present observations and suggestions that are intended to help in the planning and execution of a group decision-making effort in which AΗΡ plays a major role.
Read MoreSome mathematical topics in the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: Mathematical models for decision supportDecisions involving several criteria and alternatives need a correct procedure to combine weights to make tradeoffs and select the best alternatives. There are two parts to the problem, both of which need proof. The first is how to generate judgments and associate numbers with them, and the secon...
Read MoreForecasting foreign exchange rates: an expert judgement approach
Andrew Blair, Robert Nachtmann, Josephine Olson, Thomas SaatyStudies have indicated that forecasts by market experts can be more accurate than time series forecasts. This article describes a process for structuring an expert foreign exchange forecast using Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The specific example developed is a forecast of the yen/dol...
Read MoreRank Generation, Preservation, and Reversal in the Analytic Hierarchy Decision Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: Decision sciencesDecision making has the objective of finding the best alternative or set of alternatives by considering a number of goals, objectives, criteria, competitors, and other important factors. The analytic hierarchy process is a decision aid used to assist a decision maker in sorting out the complexity...
Read MoreDecision making, new information, ranking and structure
Thomas SaatyJournal: Mathematical ModellingThe rank of a set of alternatives can change if a new criterion is introduced into the set of criteria, but it can also change if the importances of the criteria depend on the number of alternatives and on the strength of their ranking. As a result a new alternative may change the relative order ...
Read MoreNew light on the theorem of perron
Thomas SaatyJournal: Trabajos de Estadistica Y de Investigacion OperativaWe prove that the principal eigenvector of a positive matrix represents the relative dominance of its rows of ranking of alternatives in a decision represented by the rows of a pairwise comparison matrix.
Read MoreProjecting average family size in rural India by the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas Saaty, Molly WongJournal: Journal of Mathematical SociologyIn this study, cultural, economic as well as certain crucial demographic factors are considered as the determinants for projecting the average family size in rural India. We use the Analytic Hierarchy Process to analyze influences of the factors which enter implicitly in a rural couple's deci...
Read MoreAn objective approach to faculty promotion and tenure by the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: Research in Higher EducationThis paper proposes a novel evaluation approach for the selection of candidates for promotion and/or tenure. The decision problem is conceptualized as a hierarchy of factors and a mathematical procedure known as the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used for successively “weighting” or prioriti...
Read MoreThe Analytic Hierarchy Process: A new approach to deal with fuzziness in architecture
Thomas SaatyJournal: Architectural Science ReviewA degree of fuzziness accompanies complex architectural problems. The concept of fuzziness can be compared to the hierarchy of the nervous system. Three types of fuzziness can be isolated: instantaneous, ongoing and long term. In this paper, the need for the development of a conceptually simple f...
Read MoreHigh‐level decisions: A lesson from the Iran hostage rescue operation
Thomas Saaty, Luis Vargas, Amos BarzilayWe use the analytic hierarchy process to analyze the role of subjective factors in decision making as illustrated in the Iran rescue operation. Essentially, we show that a decision maker and that decision maker's advisors may differ in their estimates on whether an action should or should not...
Read MoreHierarchical analysis of behavior in competition: Prediction in chess
Thomas Saaty, Luis VargasJournal: Behavioral scienceIn this paper we use the analytic hierarchy process to combine technical and behavioral characteristics of chess players and predict the outcome of a championship match. The method also applies to decision making in living systems at the level of the group. Our approach to prediction deals with t...
Read MoreA scaling method for priorities in hierarchical structures
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of mathematical psychologyThe purpose of this paper is to investigate a method of scaling ratios using the principal eigenvector of a positive pairwise comparison matrix. Consistency of the matrix data is defined and measured by an expression involving the average of the nonprincipal eigenvalues. We show that λmax = n is ...
Read MoreModeling unstructured decision problems—the theory of analytical hierarchies
Thomas SaatyJournal: Mathematics and computers in simulationQuantitative modeling of unstructured decision problems with social implications is new and challenging and has pressing needs. A new approach to scaling using largest eigenvalues and reciprocal matrices and the effect of inconsistent judgment are introduced and relevant theory discussed. In this...
Read MoreThe priorities of human being's decision making
Min-Suk YoonJournal: IJAHPIn order to honor Thomas Saaty, the developer of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)/ Analytic Network Process (ANP), and focus on the paper he wrote just before he died, this essay mentions the rank order problem due to the addition/deletion of irrelevant alternatives over which there were controve...
Read MoreAHP as an Effective Consensus-Based Selection Tool: A case of Personnel Selection for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Saudi Arabia
Asma Mohammed Bahurmoz, Syeda-Masooda Mukhtar, Laila M. Al-SharqiJournal: Journal for Global Business AdvancementWhile merits of normative judgements may be questionable when objectivity is the desired criterion in management decisions, which tend to be inherently unstructured such as personnel selection, evidence suggests that the perspective of traditional personnel selection methods remains relatively re...
Read MoreMisuse of the Axiom of Independence in the Analytic Hierarchy process
Kirti Peniwati, David HauserJournal: The 3rd International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessSome authors have proposed that the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) axiom of independence be relaxed to accommodate observations drawn from: a) examples of pairwise comparisons of alternatives in clusters in single criterion AHP problems, and b) examples of problems in which the criteria have th...
Read MoreA set theory justification of Garuti's compatibility index
Claudio GarutiJournal: Journal of Multi-criteria Decision AnalysisThis paper is oriented to increase the certainty and reliability of G index through different examples and show that G index expression can be reached by two different paths. The first path is using concepts of vector algebra in a weighted space. The second path is using concepts of set theory. N...
Read MoreMeasuring in Weighted Environments: Moving from Metric to Order Topology
Claudio GarutiJournal: Applications and Theory of Analytic Hierarchy Process - Decision Making for Strategic DecisionsThis is a chapter in the book: Applications and Theory of Analytic Hierarchy Process - Decision Making for Strategic Decisions. This chapter addresses the problem of measuring closeness in weighted environments (decision-making environments). This chapter show the importance of having a trustwort...
Read MoreParallelism Between Space Geometry and Decision Making Space
Claudio GarutiJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessThe aim of this essay is show some interesting analogies between space geometry and decision making space, as well as, a possible unit of measure of distance for priority vectors coming from (for instance) an AHP/ANP structure, applying the compatibility index G as a new way of measure distance i...
Read MoreThe AHP: A multicriteria decision making methodology for shiftwork prioritizing
Claudio Garuti, Mario Sandoval Journal: Journal of Systems Science and Systems EngineeringThe objective of this paper is to show that the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a very powerful methodology for designing shiftwork schedules. Manufacturing, mining and other large industrial operations often run around the clock and their employees report for work in shifts. The huge number ...
Read MoreProviding a Decision-Making Model for Importing Medium -Density Fiberboard Product
Majid Azizi, Elaheh Momeni, Nemat MohebbiJournal: Journal of the Indian Academy of Wood ScienceMedium density fiberboard (MDF) product is one of the newest types of compressed wood panels that their consumption has had a lot of growth in recent years. MDF productions of every production unit are different from each other according to a number of physical and mechanical indices. In this art...
Read MoreDecision-making under uncertainty – the integrated approach of the AHP and Bayesian analysis
Predrag Mimovic, Jelena Stankovic, Vesna Janković MilicJournal: Economic Research-Ekonomska IstraživanjaIn situations where it is necessary to perform a large number of experiments in order to collect adequate statistical data which require expert analysis and assessment, there is a need to define a model that will include and coordinate statistical data and experts’ opinions. This article points o...
Read MoreA Case Study Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process for IT Outsourcing Decision Making
Mary Anne Atkinson, Ozden Bayazit , Birsen KarpakJournal: International Journal of Information Systems and Supply Chain ManagementDecisions related to managing IT resources - which resources to keep in-house and which resources to outsource - are critical to business success. The goal of this paper is to show the usefulness of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as a decision-making tool for IT sourcing decisions, based on...
Read More
Should the UK have Brexited the European Union?
Lirong Wei, Thomas SaatyJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessThis paper is an analysis of Brexit, and asked the question, Should the UK have Brexited the European Union? We use the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to model the decision based on Benefit-Opportunities-Costs and Risks (BOCR). The AHP structure considers various factors that may be taken into...
Read MoreFive Ways to Combine Tangibles with Intangibles
Thomas SaatyJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessThis paper presents five different ways to establish weights for the criteria that govern making comparisons. Four of these can be done in the context of the AHP, but the fifth and most reliable one is obtained by using the ANP.
Read MoreWhen is a decision-making method trustworthy? Criteria for evaluating multi-criteria decision-making methods
Thomas Saaty, Daji ErguDecision makers often face complicated decision problems with intangible and conflicting criteria. Numerous multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods have been proposed to handle the measurement of the priorities of conflicting tangible/intangible criteria and in turn use them to choose the b...
Read MoreBetter world through better decision making
Thomas SaatyJournal: Symp. Anal. Hierarchy ProcessTo change this world from its primitive habit of using words and language to arrive at decisions by making tradeoffs which require the use of numbers, we need to work hard to promote this way of thinking to teach the whole world and its politicians how to measure the intangibles involved in the d...
Read MoreThe Modern Science of Multicriteria Decision Making and Its Practical Applications: The AHP/ANP Approach
Thomas SaatyJournal: Operations ResearchThis paper presents a summary of the discrete mathematical part of my work, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization to dependence and feedback, the Analytic Network Process (ANP), for measuring tangible and intangible factors, particularly as applied to decision making. The fa...
Read MoreNeural synthesis of firing decisions in the brain
Thomas SaatyJournal: Istanbul University Journal of the School of Business, The brain generally miniaturizes its perceptions into what may be regarded as a model of what happens outside. We experience the world according to the capacity of our nervous system to register the stimuli we receive. In order to understand and control the environment there needs to be proportio...
Read MoreNINA's decision: How to make better decisions and resolve conflicts-an essay for the layman
Thomas Saaty, H. J. ZofferJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessDecision making is a central activity of all people, usually done so automatically that we do not even realize that we are doing it every moment of every day of every year for all our lives. This silent and inarticulate approach worked well when humanity was fragmented and individuals and groups ...
Read MoreThe Eigenvector in lay language
Thomas SaatyJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessDecision making depends on identifying a structure of criteria and alternatives of a decision. It also depends on experience and judgments to select the best alternative. In the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for decision making the criteria and alternatives are prioritized by forming matrices ...
Read MoreFuzzy judgments and fuzzy sets
Thomas Saaty, Liem TranJournal: International Journal of Strategic Decision Sciences Using fuzzy set theory has become attractive to many people. However, the many references cited here and in other works, little thought is given to why numbers should be made fuzzy before plunging into the necessary simulations to crank out numbers without giving reason or proof that it works to ...
Read MoreAn essay on rank preservation and reversal
Thomas Saaty, Mujgan Sagir OzdemirJournal: Mathematical and Computer ModellingRank preservation and reversal, so fundamental in decision making, have been an unresolved issue in the field of economics and utility theory and came into focus when the Analytic Hierarchy Process was developed because it uses paired comparisons that inevitably make the priorities of the alterna...
Read MoreAn essay on how judgment and measurement are different in science and in decision making
Thomas SaatyJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessIn decision making the priority scales are derived objectively after subjective judgments are made, and they reflect the importance of the influences we considered. The process is the opposite of what is done in the physical sciences where the subjectivity of interpreting the final number comes a...
Read MoreWords from the AHP Creator
Thomas SaatyJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessLet me take this occasion to wish this journal and its contributors my very best. It is a joyful occasion to have our own journal for decision making with the AHP/ANP and my message to you follows.
Read MoreDecision making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: International journal of services sciencesDecisions involve many intangibles that need to be traded off. To do that, they have to be measured along side tangibles whose measurements must also be evaluated as to, how well, they serve the objectives of the decision maker. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a theory of measurement thro...
Read MoreMulti-decisions decision-making: In addition to wheeling and dealing, our national political bodies need a formal approach for prioritization
Thomas SaatyJournal: Mathematical and Computer ModellingIndividuals, corporations and governments constantly face the extremely complex problem of ordering and prioritizing their numerous decisions according to urgency and importance. They need to sequence expenditures and allocate scarce resources to optimize the returns on their investments over tim...
Read MoreThe unknown in decision making: What to do about it
Mujgan Sagir Ozdemir, Thomas SaatyJournal: European journal of operational researchThe unknown or “other” that affects our lives is what we usually very much want to know about to cope with uncertainty. We often suspect that it affects us with partial and indefinite evidence that it exists but we only have uncertain feelings about it. Even when we do not know what it is we woul...
Read MoreThe Analytic Hierarchy Process: wash criteria should not be ignored
Thomas Saaty, Luis VargasJournal: International Journal of Management and Decision Making In this short paper it is shown that care is required to perform the appropriate normalisation needed to derive the right set of priorities from paired comparisons when criteria are added or deleted in a decision problem. This is particularly true for criteria with respect to which the alternativ...
Read MoreRank from comparisons and from ratings in the Analytic Hierarchy/Network Processes
Thomas SaatyJournal: European Journal of Operational ResearchRank preservation and reversal are important subjects in multi-criteria decision-making particularly if a theory uses only one of two ways of creating priorities: rating alternatives one at a time with respect to an ideal or standard, or comparing them in pairs. It is known that our minds can do ...
Read MoreDecision making—the Analytic Hierarchy and Network Processes (AHP/ANP)
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of systems science and systems engineeringThis is the first part of an introduction to multicriteria decision making using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). The discussion involves individual and group decisions both with the independence of the criteria from the alternatives...
Read MoreAutomatic decision-making: Neural firing and response
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of Systems Science and Systems EngineeringIn contrast with conscious decision-making, there are numerous subconscious decisions that we make without thinking about them. Some are biological and are made by different parts of our body to keep it alive and functioning normally. Others are a result of repetition and training that we can the...
Read MoreWhy the magic number seven plus or minus two
Thomas Saaty, Mujgan Sagir OzdemirJournal: Mathematical and computer modellingIn 1956, Miller conjectured that there is an upper limit on our capacity to process information on simultaneously interacting elements with reliable accuracy and with validity. This limit is seven plus or minus two elements. He noted that the number 7 occurs in many aspects of life, from the seve...
Read MoreNegative priorities in the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas Saaty, Mujgan Sagir OzdemirIn decision-making, there are often criteria that are opposite in direction to other criteria as in benefits (B) versus costs (C), and in opportunities (O) versus risks (R), and sometimes need to be distinguished by using negative numbers. In making paired comparisons of alternatives with respect...
Read MoreDecision making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: Scientia IranicaIn this paper, an introduction is given to decision-making theory, the Analytic Hierarchy Process. In the AHP, a decision hierarchy is constructed with a goal, criteria and alternatives. The criteria are pairwise compared for their importance with respect to the goal to derive a scale of relative...
Read MoreRanking by eigenvector versus other methods in the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas Saaty, G HuJournal: Applied Mathematics LettersCounter-examples are given to show that in decision making, different methods of deriving priority vectors may be close for every single pairwise comparison matrix, yet they can lead to different overall rankings. When the judgments are inconsistent, their transitivity affects the final outcome...
Read MoreRatio scales are fundamental in decision making
Thomas SaatyJournal: Proceedings of the Fourth International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (ISAHP’96)Multicriteria decision making depends On the use of numbers and scales to make trade-offs. We examine in detail the types of numerical scales of measurement there are and which ones seem to work better for measurement in a hierarchic model of a complex problem. It is argued that ratio scales play...
Read MoreDecisions with the Analytic Network Process (ANP)
Thomas SaatyJournal: Proceedings of the Fourth International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (ISAHP’96)For very large model applications, AHP is known to suffer from a number of shortcomings related to time, effort and consistency at performing multiple painvise comparisons. A number of methods have been proposed to shorten the time and relate the effort to the decision precision required, or inde...
Read MoreHow to make a decision: the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: InterfacesPeople make three general types of judgments to express importance, preference, or likelihood and use them to choose the best among alternatives in the presence of environmental, social, political, and other influences. They base these judgments on knowledge in memory or from analyzing benefits, ...
Read MoreA natural way to make momentous decisions
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of scientific & industrial researchA brief introduction to making decisions by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is given. A simple illustration of how to decide on which of three people should get a heart transplant is provided. How to structure a decision problem and how to enter judgments semantically, transform them to pair...
Read MoreHow to make a decision: the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: European journal of operational researchThis paper serves as an introduction to the Analytic Hierarchy Process — A multicriteria decision making approach in which factors are arranged in a hierarchic structure. The principles and the philosophy of the theory are summarized giving general background information of the type of measuremen...
Read MoreGroup decision making and the AHP
Thomas SaatyJournal: The analytic hierarchy processThis paper focuses on the application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process in a group setting. In particular, we present observations and suggestions that are intended to help in the planning and execution of a group decision-making effort in which AΗΡ plays a major role.
Read MoreSome mathematical topics in the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: Mathematical models for decision supportDecisions involving several criteria and alternatives need a correct procedure to combine weights to make tradeoffs and select the best alternatives. There are two parts to the problem, both of which need proof. The first is how to generate judgments and associate numbers with them, and the secon...
Read MoreForecasting foreign exchange rates: an expert judgement approach
Andrew Blair, Robert Nachtmann, Josephine Olson, Thomas SaatyStudies have indicated that forecasts by market experts can be more accurate than time series forecasts. This article describes a process for structuring an expert foreign exchange forecast using Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The specific example developed is a forecast of the yen/dol...
Read MoreRank Generation, Preservation, and Reversal in the Analytic Hierarchy Decision Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: Decision sciencesDecision making has the objective of finding the best alternative or set of alternatives by considering a number of goals, objectives, criteria, competitors, and other important factors. The analytic hierarchy process is a decision aid used to assist a decision maker in sorting out the complexity...
Read MoreDecision making, new information, ranking and structure
Thomas SaatyJournal: Mathematical ModellingThe rank of a set of alternatives can change if a new criterion is introduced into the set of criteria, but it can also change if the importances of the criteria depend on the number of alternatives and on the strength of their ranking. As a result a new alternative may change the relative order ...
Read MoreNew light on the theorem of perron
Thomas SaatyJournal: Trabajos de Estadistica Y de Investigacion OperativaWe prove that the principal eigenvector of a positive matrix represents the relative dominance of its rows of ranking of alternatives in a decision represented by the rows of a pairwise comparison matrix.
Read MoreProjecting average family size in rural India by the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas Saaty, Molly WongJournal: Journal of Mathematical SociologyIn this study, cultural, economic as well as certain crucial demographic factors are considered as the determinants for projecting the average family size in rural India. We use the Analytic Hierarchy Process to analyze influences of the factors which enter implicitly in a rural couple's deci...
Read MoreAn objective approach to faculty promotion and tenure by the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: Research in Higher EducationThis paper proposes a novel evaluation approach for the selection of candidates for promotion and/or tenure. The decision problem is conceptualized as a hierarchy of factors and a mathematical procedure known as the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used for successively “weighting” or prioriti...
Read MoreThe Analytic Hierarchy Process: A new approach to deal with fuzziness in architecture
Thomas SaatyJournal: Architectural Science ReviewA degree of fuzziness accompanies complex architectural problems. The concept of fuzziness can be compared to the hierarchy of the nervous system. Three types of fuzziness can be isolated: instantaneous, ongoing and long term. In this paper, the need for the development of a conceptually simple f...
Read MoreHigh‐level decisions: A lesson from the Iran hostage rescue operation
Thomas Saaty, Luis Vargas, Amos BarzilayWe use the analytic hierarchy process to analyze the role of subjective factors in decision making as illustrated in the Iran rescue operation. Essentially, we show that a decision maker and that decision maker's advisors may differ in their estimates on whether an action should or should not...
Read MoreHierarchical analysis of behavior in competition: Prediction in chess
Thomas Saaty, Luis VargasJournal: Behavioral scienceIn this paper we use the analytic hierarchy process to combine technical and behavioral characteristics of chess players and predict the outcome of a championship match. The method also applies to decision making in living systems at the level of the group. Our approach to prediction deals with t...
Read MoreA scaling method for priorities in hierarchical structures
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of mathematical psychologyThe purpose of this paper is to investigate a method of scaling ratios using the principal eigenvector of a positive pairwise comparison matrix. Consistency of the matrix data is defined and measured by an expression involving the average of the nonprincipal eigenvalues. We show that λmax = n is ...
Read MoreModeling unstructured decision problems—the theory of analytical hierarchies
Thomas SaatyJournal: Mathematics and computers in simulationQuantitative modeling of unstructured decision problems with social implications is new and challenging and has pressing needs. A new approach to scaling using largest eigenvalues and reciprocal matrices and the effect of inconsistent judgment are introduced and relevant theory discussed. In this...
Read MoreThe priorities of human being's decision making
Min-Suk YoonJournal: IJAHPIn order to honor Thomas Saaty, the developer of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)/ Analytic Network Process (ANP), and focus on the paper he wrote just before he died, this essay mentions the rank order problem due to the addition/deletion of irrelevant alternatives over which there were controve...
Read MoreAHP as an Effective Consensus-Based Selection Tool: A case of Personnel Selection for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Saudi Arabia
Asma Mohammed Bahurmoz, Syeda-Masooda Mukhtar, Laila M. Al-SharqiJournal: Journal for Global Business AdvancementWhile merits of normative judgements may be questionable when objectivity is the desired criterion in management decisions, which tend to be inherently unstructured such as personnel selection, evidence suggests that the perspective of traditional personnel selection methods remains relatively re...
Read MoreMisuse of the Axiom of Independence in the Analytic Hierarchy process
Kirti Peniwati, David HauserJournal: The 3rd International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessSome authors have proposed that the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) axiom of independence be relaxed to accommodate observations drawn from: a) examples of pairwise comparisons of alternatives in clusters in single criterion AHP problems, and b) examples of problems in which the criteria have th...
Read MoreA set theory justification of Garuti's compatibility index
Claudio GarutiJournal: Journal of Multi-criteria Decision AnalysisThis paper is oriented to increase the certainty and reliability of G index through different examples and show that G index expression can be reached by two different paths. The first path is using concepts of vector algebra in a weighted space. The second path is using concepts of set theory. N...
Read MoreMeasuring in Weighted Environments: Moving from Metric to Order Topology
Claudio GarutiJournal: Applications and Theory of Analytic Hierarchy Process - Decision Making for Strategic DecisionsThis is a chapter in the book: Applications and Theory of Analytic Hierarchy Process - Decision Making for Strategic Decisions. This chapter addresses the problem of measuring closeness in weighted environments (decision-making environments). This chapter show the importance of having a trustwort...
Read MoreParallelism Between Space Geometry and Decision Making Space
Claudio GarutiJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessThe aim of this essay is show some interesting analogies between space geometry and decision making space, as well as, a possible unit of measure of distance for priority vectors coming from (for instance) an AHP/ANP structure, applying the compatibility index G as a new way of measure distance i...
Read MoreThe AHP: A multicriteria decision making methodology for shiftwork prioritizing
Claudio Garuti, Mario Sandoval Journal: Journal of Systems Science and Systems EngineeringThe objective of this paper is to show that the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a very powerful methodology for designing shiftwork schedules. Manufacturing, mining and other large industrial operations often run around the clock and their employees report for work in shifts. The huge number ...
Read MoreProviding a Decision-Making Model for Importing Medium -Density Fiberboard Product
Majid Azizi, Elaheh Momeni, Nemat MohebbiJournal: Journal of the Indian Academy of Wood ScienceMedium density fiberboard (MDF) product is one of the newest types of compressed wood panels that their consumption has had a lot of growth in recent years. MDF productions of every production unit are different from each other according to a number of physical and mechanical indices. In this art...
Read MoreDecision-making under uncertainty – the integrated approach of the AHP and Bayesian analysis
Predrag Mimovic, Jelena Stankovic, Vesna Janković MilicJournal: Economic Research-Ekonomska IstraživanjaIn situations where it is necessary to perform a large number of experiments in order to collect adequate statistical data which require expert analysis and assessment, there is a need to define a model that will include and coordinate statistical data and experts’ opinions. This article points o...
Read MoreA Case Study Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process for IT Outsourcing Decision Making
Mary Anne Atkinson, Ozden Bayazit , Birsen KarpakJournal: International Journal of Information Systems and Supply Chain ManagementDecisions related to managing IT resources - which resources to keep in-house and which resources to outsource - are critical to business success. The goal of this paper is to show the usefulness of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as a decision-making tool for IT sourcing decisions, based on...
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