Papers
This section presents a collection of AHP/ANP papers. Whether you are a student, academic and/or professional in the field of decision making, you can help us expand this collection by sharing your papers on decision making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Analytic Network Process (ANP).
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Paper results for keyword: Analytic Network ProcessEvaluating and Optimizing Technological Innovation Efficiency of Industrial Enterprises Based on Both Data and Judgments
Wei Gu, Thomas Saaty, Lirong WeiJournal: International Journal of Information Technology & Decision MakingTechnological innovation as one of the most important competitive strategies for companies has attracted the attentions of companies and governments. In this paper, we present an evaluation method based on data and judgments to rank the technological innovation capability and technological innova...
Read MoreAxioms of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its Generalization to Dependence and Feedback: The Analytic Network Process (ANP)
Thomas Saaty, Konrad KułakowskiJournal: eprint arXiv:1605.05777The AHP/ANP are multicriteria decision-making theories that deal with both hierarchic structures when the criteria are independent of the alternatives and with networks when there is any dependence within and between elements of the decision. Both of them have been repeatedly used in practice by ...
Read MoreFive Ways to Combine Tangibles with Intangibles
Thomas SaatyJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessThis paper presents five different ways to establish weights for the criteria that govern making comparisons. Four of these can be done in the context of the AHP, but the fifth and most reliable one is obtained by using the ANP.
Read MoreThe Need for Adding Judgment in Baysian Prediction
Thomas Saaty, Lei ZhangJournal: International Journal of Information Technology & Decision MakingThere are many examples of successful application of the famous Bayes’ theorem to forecast the outcome of causes or influences of events. However, there are also many examples of failures of just using probabilities and statistics without also using judgments in each particular application. This ...
Read MoreRanking countries more reliably in the summer olympics
Thomas Saaty, Mujgan Sagir OzdemirJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessIn this paper we consider the many intangible criteria that influence the outcome of the Summer Olympics by using the Analytic Network Process, and apply the ideas to evaluate the medals won and the country scores in the 2012 London Olympics. Both the categories of games and the events in each ga...
Read MoreA new approach to the middle east conflict: the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas Saaty, Luis VargasWe present an alternative process to address the Israeli Palestinian conflict. It does so in two ways that are different from past efforts. The first is by formally structuring the conflict and the second is the manner in which discussions are conducted and conclusions drawn.
Read MoreThe Analytic Hierarchy Process applied to complexity
Thomas Saaty, Nina BegicevicJournal: International Journal of Economics and Business ResearchEven in science, there is always the human element of using our own assumptions in logic, our feelings, our values and numerous criteria we must deal with. In addition, we often have to include the measurements of tangibles that always need agreed upon subjective judgement to interpret what exact...
Read MoreThe possibility of group choice: pairwise comparisons and merging functions
Thomas Saaty, Luis VargasJournal: Social Choice and WelfarePreferences in Arrow’s conditions are ordinal. Here we show that when intensity of preference represented by reciprocal pairwise comparisons is considered, it is always possible to construct an Arrowian social welfare function using a two-stage social choice process. In stage 1, the individual pa...
Read MoreWords from the AHP Creator
Thomas SaatyJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessLet me take this occasion to wish this journal and its contributors my very best. It is a joyful occasion to have our own journal for decision making with the AHP/ANP and my message to you follows.
Read MoreSynthesis of complex criteria decision making: a case towards a consensus agreement for a Middle East conflict resolution
H. J. Zoffer, Asma Bahurmoz, Mohammed K. Hamid, Marcel MinutoloJournal: Group Decision and NegotiationThe title of this paper reflects both the process and the outcome of the current undertaking. Frustrated with the current state of the Middle East but encouraged by earlier attempts at modeling complex problems, the authors participated in a panel discussion assembled to address the conflict and ...
Read MoreTime dependent decision-making dynamic priorities in the AHP/ANP: Generalizing from points to functions and from real to complex variables
Thomas SaatyJournal: Mathematical and Computer ModellingBecause good decisions depend on the conditions of the future, and because conditions vary over time, to make a good decision requires judgments of what is more likely or more preferred over different time periods. There are at least three ways to deal with dynamic decisions. One is to include in...
Read MoreThe Analytic Hierarchy Process: wash criteria should not be ignored
Thomas Saaty, Luis VargasJournal: International Journal of Management and Decision Making In this short paper it is shown that care is required to perform the appropriate normalisation needed to derive the right set of priorities from paired comparisons when criteria are added or deleted in a decision problem. This is particularly true for criteria with respect to which the alternativ...
Read MoreAn Analytic Network Process model for financial-crisis forecasting
Michael Niemira, Thomas SaatyJournal: International Journal of ForecastingWe discuss and develop an imbalance-crisis turning point model to forecast the likelihood of a financial crisis based on an Analytic Network Process framework. The Analytic Network Process (ANP) is a general theory of relative measurement used to derive composite-priority-ratio scales from indivi...
Read MoreFundamentals of the Analytic Network Process—multiple networks with benefits, costs, opportunities and risks
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of systems science and systems engineeringThe general theory of the ANP enables one to deal with the benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks (the BOCR merits) of a decision, by introducing the notion of negative priorities for C and R along with the rating (not comparison) of the top priority alternative synthesized for each of the fou...
Read MoreFundamentals of the Analytic Network Process—Dependence and feedback in decision-making with a single network
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of Systems science and Systems engineeringThe Analytic Network Process (ANP) is a multicriteria theory of measurement used to derive relative priority scales of absolute numbers from individual judgments (or from actual measurements normalized to a relative form) that also belong to a fundamental scale of absolute numbers. These judgment...
Read MoreDecision making—the Analytic Hierarchy and Network Processes (AHP/ANP)
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of systems science and systems engineeringThis is the first part of an introduction to multicriteria decision making using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). The discussion involves individual and group decisions both with the independence of the criteria from the alternatives...
Read MoreAutomatic decision-making: Neural firing and response
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of Systems Science and Systems EngineeringIn contrast with conscious decision-making, there are numerous subconscious decisions that we make without thinking about them. Some are biological and are made by different parts of our body to keep it alive and functioning normally. Others are a result of repetition and training that we can the...
Read MoreForecasting the resurgence of the US economy in 2001: an expert judgment approach
Andrew Blair, Gershon Mandelker, Thomas Saaty, Rozann WhitakerJournal: Socio-Economic Planning SciencesThis paper describes a forecast of the date for the resumption of growth of the US economy in 2001. It uses an expert judgment approach within the framework of decision theory, the Analytic Hierarchy Process, as well as its generalization to dependence and feedback, the Analytic Network Process.
Read MoreRatio Scales are Critical for Modeling Neural Synthesis in the Brain
Thomas SaatyJournal: Artificial Neural Nets and Genetic AlgorithmsThe brain generally miniaturizes its perceptions into what may be regarded as a model of what happens outside. We experience the world according to the capacity of our nervous system to register the stimuli we receive. In order to understand and control the environment there needs to be proportio...
Read MoreDecision Making with The Analytic Network Process (ANP) and Its Super-Decisions
Thomas SaatyJournal: Software The National Missile Defence (NMD) ExampleThere are three phases in the creation of the structure of a complex decision, 1) the subjective personal, group or corporate values, 2) the interface- merits of the decision between the first (the subjective), and the third (the objective) phases: Benefits, opportunities, costs and risks and the...
Read MoreThe seven pillars of the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: Multiple Criteria Decision Making in the New Millennium The seven pillars of the AHP, some highlights of which are discussed in the paper, are: 1) ratio scales derived from reciprocal paired comparisons; 2) paired comparisons and the psychophysical origin of the fundamental scale used to make the comparisons; 3) conditions for sensitivity of the eigen...
Read MoreDecisions with the Analytic Network Process (ANP)
Thomas SaatyJournal: Proceedings of the Fourth International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (ISAHP’96)For very large model applications, AHP is known to suffer from a number of shortcomings related to time, effort and consistency at performing multiple painvise comparisons. A number of methods have been proposed to shorten the time and relate the effort to the decision precision required, or inde...
Read MoreTransport planning with multiple criteria: the Analytic Hierarchy Process applications and progress review
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of advanced transportationFive examples of applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) are made to illustrate the different uses of this ratio scale multicriteria decision method in transportation. They include a commuter route selection hierarchy, a best mix of routes to Pittsburgh's new International Airport, a...
Read MoreHow to Handle Dependence with the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: Mathematical ModellingHierarchic and network systems are discussed as basic frameworks of unstructured problems modeled by the Analytic Hierarchy Process. A hierarchy represents a linear chain of interactions, whereas a network allows for feedback in the form of cycles and loops. A theory is provided for the prioritie...
Read MoreAn ANP model to develop a National Transformation Plan
Asma Mohammed Bahurmoz, Nahla SamrgandiJournal: International Journal of Analytic Hierarchy ProcessIn October 2015, The Saudi Council for Economic and Development Affairs unveiled an austerity plan in response to a drop in the price of oil to around US $26, which threw the country into an unexpected deficit of about $100 billion. Later on, an austerity plan evolved into the National Transforma...
Read MoreCriteria for Evaluating Group Decision-Making Methods. In: Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process
Kirti PeniwatiJournal: International Series in Operations Research & Management ScienceThis paper has brought many criteria and many methods under one umbrella. We believe that our schematization is a good start and may eventually be improved upon in subsequent revisions and extensions of the criteria used and in debating the importance of these criteria and the accuracy with which...
Read MoreIncreasing the level of certainty in medical diagnosis Using AHP/ANP with compatibility index G in support of medical diagnosis
Claudio Garuti, Mario SandovalJournal: International Journal of Medical Engineering and InformaticsThis paper is based on the development of a web-based tool, in support of medical decision making called medical sapiens (MS), oriented to improve diagnostic accuracy and diminishing the uncertainty of the initial diagnosis. It has been developed for four years working with several senior physici...
Read MoreEmployability Skills Development Approaches: An Application of the Analytic Network Process
Mohamad Shukri Abdul Hamid, Rafikul Islam, Noor Hazilah Abd ManafJournal: Asian Academy of Management JournalInstitutions of higher learning need to re-evaluate their teaching-learning approaches to develop the necessary employability skills for their graduates. The main objectives of this study are to identify the important employability skills and the corresponding employability skills development app...
Read MoreA strategic model for location selection of wood industry, an application of ANP
Majid Azizi, Mohammad ModarresJournal: Journal of Applied SciencesThe objective of this research is to design a method for selection of an appropriate location to establish plywood and veneer plants in Iran. Due to the climate of this region as well as the destruction of the forests and lack of proper plantation, the supporting forests to feed this industry are...
Read MoreApplying ANP for raw material supply in Iranian paper industry
Majid Azizi, Mohammad ModarresJournal: OR Insight volumeThe aim of this paper is to develop a strategic plan for selecting the best options for the supply of raw material to feed paper producing plants. The decision-making is examined within the framework of benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks (BOCR). A hierarchy is used to prioritize the BOCR, ...
Read MoreSerbia joining the European Union: an ANP model for forecasting date
Predrag Mimovic, Ana Krstic, Jovana SavicJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessFor the Republic of Serbia to acquire full membership in the European Union depends on a large number of factors, and it is very difficult to predict whether the country will attain membership and when it will happen. This paper first describes the Analytic Network Process (ANP), which is then ap...
Read More
Evaluating and Optimizing Technological Innovation Efficiency of Industrial Enterprises Based on Both Data and Judgments
Wei Gu, Thomas Saaty, Lirong WeiJournal: International Journal of Information Technology & Decision MakingTechnological innovation as one of the most important competitive strategies for companies has attracted the attentions of companies and governments. In this paper, we present an evaluation method based on data and judgments to rank the technological innovation capability and technological innova...
Read MoreAxioms of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its Generalization to Dependence and Feedback: The Analytic Network Process (ANP)
Thomas Saaty, Konrad KułakowskiJournal: eprint arXiv:1605.05777The AHP/ANP are multicriteria decision-making theories that deal with both hierarchic structures when the criteria are independent of the alternatives and with networks when there is any dependence within and between elements of the decision. Both of them have been repeatedly used in practice by ...
Read MoreFive Ways to Combine Tangibles with Intangibles
Thomas SaatyJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessThis paper presents five different ways to establish weights for the criteria that govern making comparisons. Four of these can be done in the context of the AHP, but the fifth and most reliable one is obtained by using the ANP.
Read MoreThe Need for Adding Judgment in Baysian Prediction
Thomas Saaty, Lei ZhangJournal: International Journal of Information Technology & Decision MakingThere are many examples of successful application of the famous Bayes’ theorem to forecast the outcome of causes or influences of events. However, there are also many examples of failures of just using probabilities and statistics without also using judgments in each particular application. This ...
Read MoreRanking countries more reliably in the summer olympics
Thomas Saaty, Mujgan Sagir OzdemirJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessIn this paper we consider the many intangible criteria that influence the outcome of the Summer Olympics by using the Analytic Network Process, and apply the ideas to evaluate the medals won and the country scores in the 2012 London Olympics. Both the categories of games and the events in each ga...
Read MoreA new approach to the middle east conflict: the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas Saaty, Luis VargasWe present an alternative process to address the Israeli Palestinian conflict. It does so in two ways that are different from past efforts. The first is by formally structuring the conflict and the second is the manner in which discussions are conducted and conclusions drawn.
Read MoreThe Analytic Hierarchy Process applied to complexity
Thomas Saaty, Nina BegicevicJournal: International Journal of Economics and Business ResearchEven in science, there is always the human element of using our own assumptions in logic, our feelings, our values and numerous criteria we must deal with. In addition, we often have to include the measurements of tangibles that always need agreed upon subjective judgement to interpret what exact...
Read MoreThe possibility of group choice: pairwise comparisons and merging functions
Thomas Saaty, Luis VargasJournal: Social Choice and WelfarePreferences in Arrow’s conditions are ordinal. Here we show that when intensity of preference represented by reciprocal pairwise comparisons is considered, it is always possible to construct an Arrowian social welfare function using a two-stage social choice process. In stage 1, the individual pa...
Read MoreWords from the AHP Creator
Thomas SaatyJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessLet me take this occasion to wish this journal and its contributors my very best. It is a joyful occasion to have our own journal for decision making with the AHP/ANP and my message to you follows.
Read MoreSynthesis of complex criteria decision making: a case towards a consensus agreement for a Middle East conflict resolution
H. J. Zoffer, Asma Bahurmoz, Mohammed K. Hamid, Marcel MinutoloJournal: Group Decision and NegotiationThe title of this paper reflects both the process and the outcome of the current undertaking. Frustrated with the current state of the Middle East but encouraged by earlier attempts at modeling complex problems, the authors participated in a panel discussion assembled to address the conflict and ...
Read MoreTime dependent decision-making dynamic priorities in the AHP/ANP: Generalizing from points to functions and from real to complex variables
Thomas SaatyJournal: Mathematical and Computer ModellingBecause good decisions depend on the conditions of the future, and because conditions vary over time, to make a good decision requires judgments of what is more likely or more preferred over different time periods. There are at least three ways to deal with dynamic decisions. One is to include in...
Read MoreThe Analytic Hierarchy Process: wash criteria should not be ignored
Thomas Saaty, Luis VargasJournal: International Journal of Management and Decision Making In this short paper it is shown that care is required to perform the appropriate normalisation needed to derive the right set of priorities from paired comparisons when criteria are added or deleted in a decision problem. This is particularly true for criteria with respect to which the alternativ...
Read MoreAn Analytic Network Process model for financial-crisis forecasting
Michael Niemira, Thomas SaatyJournal: International Journal of ForecastingWe discuss and develop an imbalance-crisis turning point model to forecast the likelihood of a financial crisis based on an Analytic Network Process framework. The Analytic Network Process (ANP) is a general theory of relative measurement used to derive composite-priority-ratio scales from indivi...
Read MoreFundamentals of the Analytic Network Process—multiple networks with benefits, costs, opportunities and risks
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of systems science and systems engineeringThe general theory of the ANP enables one to deal with the benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks (the BOCR merits) of a decision, by introducing the notion of negative priorities for C and R along with the rating (not comparison) of the top priority alternative synthesized for each of the fou...
Read MoreFundamentals of the Analytic Network Process—Dependence and feedback in decision-making with a single network
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of Systems science and Systems engineeringThe Analytic Network Process (ANP) is a multicriteria theory of measurement used to derive relative priority scales of absolute numbers from individual judgments (or from actual measurements normalized to a relative form) that also belong to a fundamental scale of absolute numbers. These judgment...
Read MoreDecision making—the Analytic Hierarchy and Network Processes (AHP/ANP)
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of systems science and systems engineeringThis is the first part of an introduction to multicriteria decision making using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization, the Analytic Network Process (ANP). The discussion involves individual and group decisions both with the independence of the criteria from the alternatives...
Read MoreAutomatic decision-making: Neural firing and response
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of Systems Science and Systems EngineeringIn contrast with conscious decision-making, there are numerous subconscious decisions that we make without thinking about them. Some are biological and are made by different parts of our body to keep it alive and functioning normally. Others are a result of repetition and training that we can the...
Read MoreForecasting the resurgence of the US economy in 2001: an expert judgment approach
Andrew Blair, Gershon Mandelker, Thomas Saaty, Rozann WhitakerJournal: Socio-Economic Planning SciencesThis paper describes a forecast of the date for the resumption of growth of the US economy in 2001. It uses an expert judgment approach within the framework of decision theory, the Analytic Hierarchy Process, as well as its generalization to dependence and feedback, the Analytic Network Process.
Read MoreRatio Scales are Critical for Modeling Neural Synthesis in the Brain
Thomas SaatyJournal: Artificial Neural Nets and Genetic AlgorithmsThe brain generally miniaturizes its perceptions into what may be regarded as a model of what happens outside. We experience the world according to the capacity of our nervous system to register the stimuli we receive. In order to understand and control the environment there needs to be proportio...
Read MoreDecision Making with The Analytic Network Process (ANP) and Its Super-Decisions
Thomas SaatyJournal: Software The National Missile Defence (NMD) ExampleThere are three phases in the creation of the structure of a complex decision, 1) the subjective personal, group or corporate values, 2) the interface- merits of the decision between the first (the subjective), and the third (the objective) phases: Benefits, opportunities, costs and risks and the...
Read MoreThe seven pillars of the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: Multiple Criteria Decision Making in the New Millennium The seven pillars of the AHP, some highlights of which are discussed in the paper, are: 1) ratio scales derived from reciprocal paired comparisons; 2) paired comparisons and the psychophysical origin of the fundamental scale used to make the comparisons; 3) conditions for sensitivity of the eigen...
Read MoreDecisions with the Analytic Network Process (ANP)
Thomas SaatyJournal: Proceedings of the Fourth International Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (ISAHP’96)For very large model applications, AHP is known to suffer from a number of shortcomings related to time, effort and consistency at performing multiple painvise comparisons. A number of methods have been proposed to shorten the time and relate the effort to the decision precision required, or inde...
Read MoreTransport planning with multiple criteria: the Analytic Hierarchy Process applications and progress review
Thomas SaatyJournal: Journal of advanced transportationFive examples of applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) are made to illustrate the different uses of this ratio scale multicriteria decision method in transportation. They include a commuter route selection hierarchy, a best mix of routes to Pittsburgh's new International Airport, a...
Read MoreHow to Handle Dependence with the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Thomas SaatyJournal: Mathematical ModellingHierarchic and network systems are discussed as basic frameworks of unstructured problems modeled by the Analytic Hierarchy Process. A hierarchy represents a linear chain of interactions, whereas a network allows for feedback in the form of cycles and loops. A theory is provided for the prioritie...
Read MoreAn ANP model to develop a National Transformation Plan
Asma Mohammed Bahurmoz, Nahla SamrgandiJournal: International Journal of Analytic Hierarchy ProcessIn October 2015, The Saudi Council for Economic and Development Affairs unveiled an austerity plan in response to a drop in the price of oil to around US $26, which threw the country into an unexpected deficit of about $100 billion. Later on, an austerity plan evolved into the National Transforma...
Read MoreCriteria for Evaluating Group Decision-Making Methods. In: Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process
Kirti PeniwatiJournal: International Series in Operations Research & Management ScienceThis paper has brought many criteria and many methods under one umbrella. We believe that our schematization is a good start and may eventually be improved upon in subsequent revisions and extensions of the criteria used and in debating the importance of these criteria and the accuracy with which...
Read MoreIncreasing the level of certainty in medical diagnosis Using AHP/ANP with compatibility index G in support of medical diagnosis
Claudio Garuti, Mario SandovalJournal: International Journal of Medical Engineering and InformaticsThis paper is based on the development of a web-based tool, in support of medical decision making called medical sapiens (MS), oriented to improve diagnostic accuracy and diminishing the uncertainty of the initial diagnosis. It has been developed for four years working with several senior physici...
Read MoreEmployability Skills Development Approaches: An Application of the Analytic Network Process
Mohamad Shukri Abdul Hamid, Rafikul Islam, Noor Hazilah Abd ManafJournal: Asian Academy of Management JournalInstitutions of higher learning need to re-evaluate their teaching-learning approaches to develop the necessary employability skills for their graduates. The main objectives of this study are to identify the important employability skills and the corresponding employability skills development app...
Read MoreA strategic model for location selection of wood industry, an application of ANP
Majid Azizi, Mohammad ModarresJournal: Journal of Applied SciencesThe objective of this research is to design a method for selection of an appropriate location to establish plywood and veneer plants in Iran. Due to the climate of this region as well as the destruction of the forests and lack of proper plantation, the supporting forests to feed this industry are...
Read MoreApplying ANP for raw material supply in Iranian paper industry
Majid Azizi, Mohammad ModarresJournal: OR Insight volumeThe aim of this paper is to develop a strategic plan for selecting the best options for the supply of raw material to feed paper producing plants. The decision-making is examined within the framework of benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks (BOCR). A hierarchy is used to prioritize the BOCR, ...
Read MoreSerbia joining the European Union: an ANP model for forecasting date
Predrag Mimovic, Ana Krstic, Jovana SavicJournal: International Journal of the Analytic Hierarchy ProcessFor the Republic of Serbia to acquire full membership in the European Union depends on a large number of factors, and it is very difficult to predict whether the country will attain membership and when it will happen. This paper first describes the Analytic Network Process (ANP), which is then ap...
Read More